K
KickCast

Tournament Overview

2026 FIFA World Cup predictions from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Favourite

Spain

Win Probability

20.5%+2.1%

Teams

48

Simulations

10K

Tournament Win Probabilities

All 48 teams, colored by confederation

UEFA
CONMEBOL
CONCACAF
CAF
AFC
OFC
Spain
20.5%
France
18.7%
England
15.3%
Brazil
10.3%
Argentina
9.0%
Portugal
5.7%
Germany
5.5%
Netherlands
3.1%
Norway
2.8%
Colombia
2.5%
Belgium
1.7%
Switzerland
1.0%
Croatia
0.9%
Japan
0.8%
Senegal
0.4%
Uruguay
0.4%
United States
0.3%
Austria
0.2%
Ecuador
0.1%
Sweden
0.1%
Morocco
0.1%
Australia
0.1%
Mexico
0.1%
Canada
0.1%
Paraguay
0.1%
Iran
0.1%
South Korea
0.0%
Ivory Coast
0.0%
Turkiye
0.0%
Scotland
0.0%
Algeria
0.0%
Tunisia
0.0%
South Africa
0.0%
Czechia
0.0%
Qatar
0.0%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.0%
Haiti
0.0%
Curacao
0.0%
Egypt
0.0%
New Zealand
0.0%
Saudi Arabia
0.0%
Cape Verde
0.0%
Iraq
0.0%
Jordan
0.0%
Uzbekistan
0.0%
DR Congo
0.0%
Ghana
0.0%
Panama
0.0%

Round-by-Round Advancement

TeamGroupR32R16QFSFFinalWinner
SpainUEFA
100.0%75.0%64.1%51.3%35.7%20.5%20.5%
FranceUEFA
97.6%83.9%60.9%42.0%29.8%18.7%18.7%
EnglandUEFA
99.9%83.4%71.0%39.8%25.1%15.3%15.3%
BrazilCONMEBOL
99.9%68.3%50.2%38.1%18.9%10.3%10.3%
ArgentinaCONMEBOL
99.9%68.2%39.0%26.2%17.3%9.0%9.0%
PortugalUEFA
99.6%80.3%52.5%30.0%15.4%5.7%5.7%
GermanyUEFA
99.8%82.2%39.5%26.5%11.5%5.5%5.5%
NetherlandsUEFA
99.3%59.4%42.7%20.0%7.9%3.1%3.1%
NorwayUEFA
96.6%74.3%34.8%15.5%6.6%2.8%2.8%
ColombiaCONMEBOL
97.2%62.7%38.5%19.5%7.2%2.5%2.5%
BelgiumUEFA
99.5%60.5%41.4%14.6%4.5%1.7%1.7%
SwitzerlandUEFA
99.5%72.7%25.3%8.1%2.8%1.0%1.0%
CroatiaUEFA
98.2%48.0%31.0%9.7%3.4%0.9%0.9%
JapanAFC
98.3%47.7%23.0%8.3%2.6%0.8%0.8%
UruguayCONMEBOL
97.3%38.7%14.8%6.5%1.8%0.4%0.4%
SenegalCAF
66.3%33.4%17.7%5.9%1.7%0.4%0.4%
United StatesCONCACAF
72.7%47.3%17.6%6.7%2.0%0.3%0.3%
AustriaUEFA
70.3%24.9%12.2%4.8%0.9%0.2%0.2%
EcuadorCONMEBOL
91.1%43.0%10.2%2.6%0.7%0.1%0.1%
SwedenUEFA
51.4%23.4%8.4%2.3%0.6%0.1%0.1%
MoroccoCAF
90.1%24.9%9.7%1.6%0.3%0.1%0.1%
AustraliaAFC
78.1%38.2%12.5%3.8%0.7%0.1%0.1%
MexicoCONCACAF
92.9%43.2%11.7%2.7%0.4%0.1%0.1%
CanadaCONCACAF
97.9%59.5%16.9%2.7%0.4%0.1%0.1%
ParaguayCONMEBOL
77.9%39.2%8.0%1.8%0.4%0.1%0.1%
IranAFC
71.7%24.6%4.7%1.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%
Ivory CoastCAF
92.0%30.9%6.5%1.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
South KoreaAFC
89.3%42.3%10.2%1.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%
ScotlandUEFA
79.5%14.0%4.9%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
TurkiyeUEFA
51.1%18.8%4.8%1.2%0.3%0.0%0.0%
AlgeriaCAF
83.3%15.5%6.2%1.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
TunisiaCAF
14.1%2.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
HaitiCONCACAF
9.3%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
South AfricaCAF
26.2%2.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
QatarAFC
35.2%4.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Bosnia and HerzegovinaUEFA
33.7%8.4%1.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
CzechiaUEFA
66.9%13.1%2.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
CuracaoCONCACAF
3.6%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
EgyptCAF
49.5%17.7%2.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
New ZealandOFC
37.0%6.2%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cape VerdeCAF
43.0%1.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Saudi ArabiaAFC
27.2%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
JordanAFC
5.5%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
IraqAFC
2.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
DR CongoCAF
25.1%2.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
UzbekistanAFC
28.5%3.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
GhanaCAF
28.0%3.4%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PanamaCONCACAF
26.6%3.2%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%